Mitch Wagner's editor's note from Security Pipeline:
Don't Strangle Businesses Before They're Born
"I love the history of technology, so bear with me if I take a while to get to the point:
In February, 1976, Sony introduced the first Betamax VCR in the United States. Sony believed that consumers would buy the technology to record TV shows and watch them later, a practice which later came to be called "time-shifting." Sony advertised: "Now you don't have to miss 'Kojak' because you're watching 'Columbo' (or vice versa)." (Who loves ya, baby?)
But VCR sales malingered until a couple of entrepreneurs had the insight that consumers didn't want so much to record tapes as play pre-recorded ones. Magnetic Video started selling videocassettes mail-order, and, in December 1977, the first video rental store, The Video Station, opened in Los Angeles. VCR sales got another boost when Jane Fonda released "The Jane Fonda Workout" in 1982, leading to a rush in exercise videos.
Around the same time, the first consumer PCs were being introduced. Advocates said one of the chief uses would be to store recipes. Indeed, one of the very first consumer PCs was the Honeywell Kitchen Computer, introduced way back in 1966, designed to store recipes. It required two weeks of programming and cost $10,000. I can't be sure of this, but I believe that its target market was the extremely wealthy (and stupid).
My point: Very often, when technologies are introduced, we have absolutely no idea how they'll be used. We're utterly ignorant. We're completely clueless. We stumble around for years, thinking this "hammer" thing would be great for putting on top of paper to keep it from blowing away, and only later does it occur to someone that, you know, I bet you could drive a nail with this thing.
One of the worst things that can happen to embryonic technology is to be strangled by regulation. That almost happened with VCR technology in the late 1970s, as media companies sued to try to get time-sharing blocked as intellectual property theft. Those same companies are now seeing most of their revenue from VHS and DVD sales, which would not have happened if those original lawsuits had killed the VCR industry before it was born.
(Advocates of filesharing use those very lawsuits as evidence in favor of filesharing. But that's not the point of this editorial.)
We're now at the pioneering stages of Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) technology. We think we know what RFID will be used for: by business, the military, and government agencies to track their supply chains. RFID tags are cheap enough that they are already being used to track pallets-full of stock, and they are expected to get cheaper, and more powerful, so that tracking individual items of merchandise on store shelves will become possible.
Privacy advocates fear this will be used to keep track of everyone's possessions, and are raising the alarm. Politicians are responding to those fears in the way that politicians do: introducing legislation. And that's scary, because we don't know what we're trying to legislate, and what potential business might be strangled by clumsy legislation.
We're already seeing RFID being used in unanticipated ways. In Denmark, the Legoland amusement park is using RFID tags combined with mobile phones to help parents find their kids after the kids have wandered off.
Legoland Uses Wireless And RFID For Child Security
And a recent survey showed that developers aren't using RFID for inventory control so much as for security.
Developers Use RFID For Security Applications Most
Probably someone reading this article is right now thinking up the killer app for RFID, the one that drives it into the mainstream. In 20 years we'll look back and say, "Hey, remember in 2004 we thought RFID was going to be used for inventory management? Wasn't that silly of us?" But that won't happen if RFID is strangled by government regulation before it's born.
P.S. Here's some links about the history of the VCR and the Kitchen Computer:
Consumer Electronics Association: Digital America
Video cassette recorder - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The Kitchen Computer
Honeywell Model 316 "Kitchen Computer""